In response to my 30-minute YouTube on how to end global warming, some colleagues and friends suggested a shorter version. Here it is! The fastest path to end global warming, under 5 minutes.
17 May 2021
08 May 2021
Calculator for COVID-19 population immunity, likely optimistic
I wrote a simple spreadsheet to estimate the approximate level of immunity for a given area. The inputs are the
- population,
- number vaccinated,
- number of COVID-19 cases.
Here's the spreadsheet: US percent immunity.
Looks like very good news to me! The U.S. as a whole appears to be at about 80% as of this writing.
21 April 2021
A Faster Path to Ending Global Warming - and I mean Ending It
National and international negotiations to address climate change are hard. So hard, in fact, that the progress we've made in over a half-century of knowing about climate change is slight.
I've got a new publication which explains how to solve this problem: "A price on warming with a supply chain directed market," in Springer's new journal Discover Sustainability vol, 2, no. 2, Feb 2021.
I've also produced a YouTube video about this work: "A Faster Path to End Global Warming: A Price on Warming with a Supply Chain Directed Market."
Much more to come!
12 April 2019
Quit Fox News
05 July 2018
Corporations shouldn’t have “free speech” for this one weird reason
Nor do corporations vote; a corporation is not and cannot be a citizen.
A for-profit corporation is a tool of commerce, like a butcher’s scale, a credit card, an accounts book, and an advertisement. That a corporation is more than an commercial device is a lie, a lie born out of deceit.
Because the corporation is inherently a tool of commerce, corporations should be regulated like any other commercial device. Government reasonably demands that butcher’s scales show true weight, that credit cards are charged fairly, that accounts are accurate, the banks faithfully hold their customers’ deposits and report those deposits accurately. When a business cheats with these ordinary tools of commerce, consumers rightfully expect government to prosecute the people running that business. Corporations are creatures of the market place, not of politics, and the market place must be well-regulated.
Now, companies already freely say bald-faced lies: cigarettes are good for you, coal is clean, global warming is a scam, that pollution isn’t from our plant, that pollution won’t hurt you, and the doozy “Corporations are people, too, my friend.”
If government allows corporations “free speech” on the basis of the First Amendment, then what is to stop corporations from claiming the right to say anything at the butcher scale with how much meat you are buying, with the credit card in how much you owe, and the accounts book in how much money you have on deposit? If a bank has the right to free speech to tell you whatever they want to say, then they can tell you that your bank balance is whatever they want to tell you it is. We should be surprised and offended if the butcher’s scale showed a different weight depending on the customer’s politics, or sexuality, or religion. These examples are (hopefully) obviously absurd.
Government should treat corporate lies in exactly the same way as it does a dishonest butcher’s scale. Government must require corporations to speak the truth, and to stay out of politics, for the same reason that a butcher’s scale should tell the truth and should stay out of politics. If you go into business, then you should treat everyone equally, and honestly, even if you dislike their politics, sexuality, or religion. And if you, in the course of your business, do not treat everyone equally and honestly, you should be prosecuted.
28 April 2018
I'm quitting Facebook
https://www.digitaltrends.com/…/facebook-tracks-calls-and-…/
https://www.usatoday.com/…/facebook-watching-and-…/81803796/
https://www.theguardian.com/…/facebook-admits-tracking-user…
https://www.inc.com/…/facebook-isnt-just-tracking-your-call…
https://www.nytimes.com/…/internet-advertising-business.html
https://theintercept.com/…/facebook-advertising-data-artif…/
https://www.nytimes.com/…/…/facebook-regulation-privacy.html
https://www.nytimes.com/…/18reuters-facebook-privacy-eu-exc…
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/24/8788
https://www.bloomberg.com/…/ad-scammers-need-suckers-and-fa…
https://newrepublic.com/…/conservatives-groomed-perfect-suc…
http://www.syracuse.com/…/technofile_scammers_troll_ads_loo…
http://time.com/5241419/facebook-ads-suspicious-groups/
https://www.nytimes.com/…/o…/sunday/facebook-ad-scandal.html
https://www.nytimes.com/…/cambridge-analytica-trump-campaig…
https://www.nytimes.com/…/facebook-cambridge-analytica-expl…
10 December 2017
The Correct Price of Bitcoin
The basis for this model is the idea is that we need a supply of cash for purchases over the year, perhaps our demand is d = $500/year. To take cash out of the bank, we lose the interest i, perhaps 1%, on that money. So we are incentivized to take out only small amounts. But taking cash out of the bank has a fixed cost f, including any withdrawal fee (as from a banking machine) and the hassle of getting to the bank, perhaps $2/transaction. The fixed cost of withdrawal incentivizes us to take out large amounts.
So the two competing costs have an optimum, which we can calculate using the classic Wilson economic order quantity formula. For more background on the optimal inventory of cash, see this, which references Baumol. The economic order quantity formula is Q = (2fd/i)^0.5, where Q is the optimal withdrawal amount. Assuming we use the cash evenly over time, we will have on average $Q/2 dollars in our pocket.
We can apply this model to Bitcoin to estimate its correct price. Assume:
- a 3% interest rate, and
- a $2/transaction withdrawal fee to get Bitcoin (e.g., to convert it from $US),
- users want to spend about $500 worth of Bitcoin per year.
Assume 20,000,000 Bitcoin users. Together, they need $129*20,000,000 = $2.59 billion Bitcoin.
With 21,000,000 Bitcoin in existence, the Bitcoin should cost $2.59 billion/21,000,000 = $123/Bitcoin.
I tried this on the amount of U.S. currency, and was off by a factor of approximately 2, which could be due to people hoarding cash. So let's multiply by 2 for hoarding. We get a price of Bitcoin of only $246.
Below is some sensitivity analysis. I think $15,000 is really high!
Low | Geometric mean | High | |
Max number bitcoin | 21,000,000 | 15,874,508 | 12,000,000 |
Number of users | 20,000,000 | 44,721,360 | 100,000,000 |
Interest rate/year | 3% | 1.7% | 1% |
Transaction cost | $2 | $2.83 | $4 |
Demand/year/user | $500 | $1,414 | $4,000 |
Optimal holding/user | $129 | $340 | $894 |
Total cash needed | $2,581,988,897 | $15,196,713,713 | $89,442,719,100 |
$/bitcoin | $123 | $957 | $7,454 |
With hoarding, x2 | $246 | $1,915 | $14,907 |
I put the calculated fields in bold.
10 May 2017
New book: Smart Markets for Water Resources, by Raffensperger & Milke
16 October 2016
Truth, Justice and the American Way
The world so desperately needs this. This could help change the world. Now, we just need to get the news and pseudo-news services to have scrolling fact checks at the bottom of the screen.
Here are some other comments on it from the CS Monitor, and a disturbing commentary on fact-checking from the Washington Post.
14 December 2015
Are lies justified?
I am inclined to agree with a few of them. For rexample, #6 is, "In November of 1962, during the Cuban Missile crisis, President Kennedy gave a conference. When asked whether he had discussed any matters other than Cuban missiles with the Soviets he absolutely denied it. In fact, he had promised that the United States would remove missiles from Turkey." I don't know what else was going on, so I am inclined to let him off the hook. Still, I think that the President could have said, "I won't discuss matters of national security."
07 October 2015
The Death of Fox News
First, Facebook is adding tools to let users flag lies. I'm often tempted to click on "Heidi Klum" (no link provided here, LOL), but I can't bring myself to click on "Santa Claus proved to be real!" But some of us are tempted by headlines like that. 'Cause we're all different amounts gullible.
Second, and probably more usefully, Google is working on an automatic fact checker, as the Washington Post reports. Here's Google's paper on it. Years ago, I had a similar idea, and I'm very glad to see Google making progress on it. (Google is also working on making high-quality health information available.)
Now imagine that you can download a widget that scans your (Fox) webpage or video, and checks the statements in real time. And imagine that the widget reports to you in real time which statements are false, and the running fraction of obviously false statements. If you're like me, you would lose confidence in that website or video, and tend to avoid it in the future.
I think that would be a better world.
13 June 2015
Cornell Food & Brand Lab, saving money, and open source academic journals
The TreeHugger article gets the summary right. Here's the Cornell summary. Have a look at them. But here's my take on it.
You can save money by doing bulk purchases only if you are sure you will use it all. You can save money by preparing smaller quantities, to ensure you can eat it all. You will save a lot of money by getting rid of your dogs and cats (okay, this is incendiary, hold your flames on this until I can write a fuller post, I'm just reporting my interpretation of the journal paper). You can save money if you conserve food more carefully - like closing that bread bag all the way, so it doesn't dry out.
My suggestion: drive down your food inventory to near zero occasionally, say, at least every 6 months. Eat what you have on hand. Empty out the fridge, empty out the cabinets and the pantry. Force yourself to eat up the weird stuff, the dried beans, the ancient packages of foreign noodles, that you've been ignoring. Imagine not needing to go to the grocery store for two weeks! You'll save a ton of money, clean out the cupboards, and learn more about which foods you're actually going to use.
The TreeHugger article pointed me to the Cornell Food and Brand Lab site. Lots of great material there. In their short video, Porpino has sad eyes, as if he is unhappy about the food waste. I liked the video, and the cart-to-trash action makes the point well. Here's another interesting article by the Cornell Lab folk: whether you lose or gain weight depends on weekdays, not weekends. Great stuff, great work. Whoa, Wansink has the same baggy eyes as Porpino! They are obviously working overtime to bring us all this great research. Kudos, guys, keep it up. But consider PLoS One for your next article - your lower-income Brazilian study subjects could then read it. In any case, I'll be coming back to your Lab website.
04 May 2015
On failure in diets
Based on my own experience with Wagmu, I have felt for some time that dieting is fraught with problems. The interview described physical changes that I have felt myself during dieting - more attention to food, finding greater pleasure in food, lowered metabolism, difficulty in maintaining willpower. I find much to agree with.
I disagree, mildly, when I consider the use of tools for dieting. In particular, logging one's diet has been shown to improve the efficacy of dieting. See for example this report. I have found that when I am logging food in Wagmu, I am succeeding, and when I don't log food in Wagmu, I am failing.
Something about the process of making a plan - "this is what I'm going to eat" - seems to ease my ability in sticking to the plan. My guess is that it's (1) the a priori commitment, combined with (2) a concrete plan, and (3) knowledge that I have a nutritious diet due to Wagmu's powerful Suggest feature. So I've made a plan, and I know exactly what to do, and I know that if I don't follow it, then it won't be as nutritious.
So I'm hoping Prof. Mann tries out Wagmu!
02 May 2015
Drag your GraphViz nodes with Inkscape!
Unfortunately, this editing is limited. The arcs are not "connectors" in the graphic-editing sense, so we cannot drag a node while maintaining arc connectivity.
But Inkscape does have draggable connectors. Solution: I wrote this Python script to convert GraphViz SVG output to have Inkscape-draggable connectors. Seems to work. In Inkscape, click the node to drag, not the arc. Your mileage may vary. Open source code here.
# 2 May 2015, John F. Raffensperger. from xml.dom import minidom # 1. Read Graphviz.svg. This is output from Graphviz. graphvizSVGFile= minidom.parse("graphviz_output.svg") # 2. For each node, get id and title. nodeTitles = {} for s in graphvizSVGFile.getElementsByTagName('g'): if s.attributes['id'].value[:4] == "node": nodeTitles[s.getElementsByTagName('title')[0].firstChild.data] = s.attributes['id'].nodeValue # 3. For each arc, parse the title, and match the corresponding ids of the nodes, add the ids to the arc, edgeTitles = {} for s in graphvizSVGFile.getElementsByTagName('g'): if s.attributes['id'].value[:4] == "edge": edgeTitle = s.getElementsByTagName('title')[0].firstChild.data edgeTitles [s.attributes['id'].nodeValue] = edgeTitle.split("->") # 4. Add connector elements to Graphviz.svg. # For each arc, delete the GraphViz arrow marker, for s in graphvizSVGFile.getElementsByTagName('g'): if s.attributes['id'].value[:4] == "edge": # Remove child "polygon", which is the GraphViz arrow marker. for thing in s.childNodes: if thing.nodeType == s.ELEMENT_NODE and thing.tagName == "polygon": s.removeChild(thing) break # 5. To each edge path, add an Inkscape arrow marker in the attributes. for s in graphvizSVGFile.getElementsByTagName('g'): if s.attributes['id'].value[:4] == "edge": for thing in s.childNodes: if thing.nodeType == s.ELEMENT_NODE and thing.tagName == "path": thing.setAttribute("inkscape:connector-type", "polyline") thing.setAttribute("inkscape:connector-curvature", "3") nodeID = nodeTitles[edgeTitles[s.attributes['id'].value][0]] thing.setAttribute("inkscape:connection-start", "#" + nodeID) nodeID = nodeTitles[edgeTitles[s.attributes['id'].value][1]] thing.setAttribute("inkscape:connection-end", "#" + nodeID) # 6. Output should have draggable nodes in Inkscape, after ungrouping as needed. SVGtextFile = open("inkscape_input.svg", "wb") graphvizSVGFile.writexml(SVGtextFile) SVGtextFile.close() print "done"
25 April 2015
28 December 2014
Thieves, vandals, and "The Interview"
But I think of the poor chump who got at most a couple hundred dollars from messing up my house, who put themselves and their family's welfare at such risk for such a little bit, how pitiful he or she must be.
I had a similar reaction to the Sony hacking. The fools running North Korea are in a desperate situation of their own making, without a clue as to what to do beyond vandalizing a movie company's computers in the lamest attempt at protecting their honor.
The feeling was accentuated further when we rented "The Interview" on Youtube (I was getting stir-crazy). It's a stupid film. A government actually got upset about this? And bothered to react? It makes the film into a tragedy, and not only for all the people that were injured by the vandals, but for the vandal.
Then I read that people have been viewing pirated versions of the movie. People who watch pirated movies are stealing, but in this case, they're also siding with the antagonist of the film.
10 July 2014
Comments on David Brat?
19 March 2014
Putin, in another world
But it is not the one that Putin is living in. According to the NY Times, "Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. 'In another world,' she said."
Just to see how damaging his action was, consider a third reality. This wholly hypothetical world need only diverge from the current one after the departure of Prime Minister Yanukovych from Ukraine.
Russia had offered a $15 billion loan to Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, was discussing an economic agreement with the European Union. Under pressure from Putin, Yanukovych rejected the EU agreement, precipitating the Euromaidan protests, and, eventually, Yanukovych's departure.
Now here is where the third reality begins. First, Putin prevents Yanukovych from entering Russia. Better yet, Putin arrests Yanukovych and returns him to Ukraine to face justice. Second, Putin follows through on his loan to Ukraine's government, at least part of it. Third, he guarantees the gas supply at the current price. Fourth, he tells Ukraine citizens to unite behind the new government.
Such action would have gained him enormous good will. With all the good will, Putin could even have asked for an international discussion on returning Crimea to Russia, and achieved his ends as a statesman rather than a thug.
So what reality is Putin really living in? I suggest that he doesn't understand basic economics. Here's why.
Whitehouse.gov lists the Russians who have been sanctioned by the U.S. The first person on this list is Vladislav Surkov. Wikipedia indicates that Mr. Surkov received a masters in economics. Now here's the interesting bit: Jeffrey Mankoff quotes Mr. Surkov saying,
...we are inseparably tied with Europe and must be friends with it. They are not enemies. They are simply competitors. So, it is more insulting that we are not enemies. An enemy situation is where one can be killed in a war as a hero if there is a conflict. There is something heroic and beautiful in it. And to lose in a competitive struggle means to be a loser. And this is doubly insulting, I think. [Emphasis added.]I would expect a statement like this from a Klingon on Star Trek, not a senior government advisor, especially not one who had studied economics.
When you and I voluntarily trade, we are both better off. When Russia sells gas to Ukraine, Russia gets money and Ukrainians get warm. If Russia did not sell the gas to Ukraine, Ukrainians would be cold or have to get warm in a more expensive way. Ukrainians save some money by avoiding the higher cost heating, and Russians gain money above the cost of extracting the gas. Those gains are the gains of trade, and both sides get something out of the deal. A competitor is someone is the same business - Ukraine gas sellers compete with Russian gas sellers. But Ukraine is a net importer of gas. Countries that trade with Russia are not competitors, but partners making themselves better off through trade.
Russia's threat to cut off gas to Ukraine is of a particularly mean form: "I will hurt you even though I will get hurt, too."
Further, another government should not be seen as a competitor, but as a partner in improving trade and the rule of law. Government should be about regulating trade, ensuring a fair marketplace, guaranteeing rights, and ensuring justice.
Putin does not understand that no one wants to be his competitor. Other countries want to trade with Russia. Such trade would enrich Russia and its trading partners. But given that he does not understand the rule of law and the role of government, we should not be surprised that he does not understand basic economics.
And for you Russian-speakers, I used Google Translate to put this in Russion.
Путин, в другом мире
Но это не тот, что Путин живем Согласно Нью-Йорк Таймс ", сказал канцлер Германии Ангела Меркель Обаму по телефону в воскресенье, что после разговора с Путиным она не была уверена, что он был в контакте с реальностью, люди проинформированы о вызове сказал. 'В другом мире ", сказала она."
Просто чтобы посмотреть, какой ущерб его действие было, рассмотреть третью реальность. Это совершенно гипотетический мир нужно только расходятся с текущей после ухода премьер-министра Януковича из Украины.
Россия предложила кредит на $ 15 млрд в Украину. Украина, тем временем, обсуждают экономическое соглашение с Европейским Союзом. Под давлением Путина, Янукович отверг соглашение ЕС, осаждения протесты Euromaidan , и, в конце концов, время вылета Януковича.
Теперь вот то, где начинается третий реальностью. Во-первых, Путин препятствует Януковича въезд в Россию. А еще лучше, Путин арестовывает Януковича и возвращает его в Украину, чтобы предстать перед судом. Во-вторых, Путин выполнит свое займа правительства Украины, по крайней мере его часть. В-третьих, он гарантирует подачу газа по текущей цене. В-четвертых, он говорит граждан Украины объединиться вокруг нового правительства.
Такие действия получил бы ему огромную добрую волю. При всем доброй воли, Путин может даже попросили международной дискуссии по возвращении Крыма к России, и добились своих целей как государственного деятеля, а не бандит.
Так что реальность Путин действительно живем? Я полагаю, что он не понимает, основные экономики. И вот почему.
Whitehouse.gov перечислены русских , которые были санкционированы США Первый человек в этом списке является Владислав Сурков . Википедия указывает, что г-н Сурков получил степень магистра в области экономики.Теперь вот интересный бит: Джеффри Манкофф цитирует г-н Сурков говорил ,
... Мы неразрывно связаны с Европой и должны дружить с ней. Они не враги. Они просто конкуренты.Таким образом, это более обидно, что мы не враги. Враг ситуация, когда один может быть убит в войне как героя, если есть конфликт. Существует нечто героическое и красивый в нем. И проиграть в конкурентной борьбе значит быть неудачником. И это вдвойне обидно, я думаю. [Курсив наш.]Я ожидал бы такое заявление от клингона на Star Trek , не высокопоставленный правительственный советник, особенно не один, кто изучал экономику.
Когда вы и я добровольно торговать, мы оба лучше. Когда Россия продает газ Украине, Россия получает деньги и украинцы согреться. Если Россия не продавала газ Украине, украинцы будет холодно или должны получить тепло в более дорогой способ. Украинцы сэкономить деньги, избегая более высокую стоимость отопления, и россияне получить деньги выше стоимости отвода газа. Эти достижения являются завоевания торговли, и обе стороны получить что-то из сделки. Конкурент кто-то такой же бизнес - газовые продавцы Украина конкурировать с продавцами российского газа. Но Украина является нетто-импортером газа. Страны, которые торгуют с Россией неявляются конкурентами, но партнеры делая себя лучше за счет торговли.
России угроза отрезать газ в Украину носит особо означать форме: "Я сделаю тебе больно, даже если я получу больно, тоже."
Кроме того, другое правительство не следует рассматривать в качестве конкурента, но в качестве партнера в улучшение торговли и верховенства закона. Правительство должно быть около регулирования торговли, обеспечения справедливого рынка, обеспечения прав и обеспечения правосудия.
Путин не понимает, что никто не хочет быть его конкурентом. Другие страны хотят торговать с Россией. Такая торговля обогатит Россию и ее торговых партнеров. Но, учитывая, что он не понимает, верховенства права и роли государства, мы не должны удивляться тому, что он не понимает, основные экономики.
23 February 2014
In modest praise of Rachel Frederickson
As I seem to be in a permanent diet mode myself (which is itself perhaps a good thing), I have to pay out some respect to her for her discipline.
If she did eat properly, I have to pay out even more respect.
I took my darling wife to dinner at Casablanca, Venice, CA, for Valentines Day. I over-ate. It was fun. Plus I over-ate the rest of the weekend. (I mean, I over-ate food during the weekend. I didn't actually eat the weekend!) Then this week, I swung the other way, eating very little, basically skipping dinner and sometimes lunch, too. This morning, I woke up and didn't feel good. Really weak, light-headed. I dreamed that I was in some school cafeteria and people were pinching food off my tray - "Not the shrimp! Don't take my shrimp!" LOL! But my dream had some justice, 'cause I stole that guy's blueberries.
Goofy dreams aside, dieting can be dangerous. If Ms. Frederickson managed her diet as well as she indicates - a steady 1,600 calories/day under medical supervision - then I have to pay out my respect to her. I think she went too far, as her BMI is below the normal range, but I hereby pay out my respect to her for her very hard work and discipline.
My difficulty of this morning, I think, has three components. First, I swung the pendulum too far, over-eating and then under-eating. Second, my diet wasn't perfectly nutritious - I haven't been using Wagmu. Third, I haven't been exercising much, so my weight loss has been badly controlled. The solution is better control: managing enough food, with the associated calories, to get our nutrition, and then enough exercise to move us in the right direction toward our health goals.
Wagmu probably does it about as well as is possible, with power operations research methods under the hood. The problem is, like any discipline, getting oneself to actually use it.
Possible correction: this page says she lost the weight in 7 months, considerably longer than 18 weeks. But I'm still paying out the respect.
17 February 2014
The Epson XP-810 inkjet printer
I gave away my old HP Laserjet, I think an 18-year-old device, which just kept going. But it was black and white, wouldn't do duplex, couldn't scan, etc.
The Epson won't even turn off when you press the power button! "Do you want to close the tray?" NO! Just go away. "Okay, remember to close the tray manually." Maybe I should just unplug it.
06 February 2014
Energy analysis of Rachel Frederickson's win on Biggest Loser
She lost 155 pounds. That is impressive. I was curious about what she must have had to do to get there, so here is an analysis.
As far as I can tell, the show was no more than 18 weeks long. She lost 155 pounds over 18 weeks, so she lost 8.6 pounds/week. How was this possible!? Why can't *I* lose 8.6 pounds per week? Here's what I've figured (and it's DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME).
She started at 260 pounds and went to 105 pounds. The average woman (though not an obese woman) has about 36% muscle mass (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muscle). So she lost 0.36*260 = 55.8 pounds muscle and (1 - 0.36)*260 = 99.2 pounds fat.
You can lose a pound of muscle for 600 calories, and a pound of fat for 3,500 calories (http://www.myfitnesspal.com/topics/show/153704-myth-or-fact-simple-math-3500-calories-one-pound-eat).
So she had to give up 33,480 calories for the muscle and 347,200 calories for the fat: [33,480 + 347,200]/18/7 = about 3,020 calories deficit per day.
Assume her metabolism was 2,000 calories/day (mine is around 1,800). She said she ate 1,600 calories/day. Then she had to BURN about 2,600 calories through exercise EVERY DAY for 18 weeks.
My exercise database shows that, for a 150 pound person (a number somewhere between her 260 start and 105 end), the average exercise burns 460 calories per hour.
She had to work out hard for at least 5 hours per day! When I mean hard, I mean hard. This is all she did.
I guess it's possible mathematically. Stay tuned to her story to see if she can keep it off.
24 April 2013
The Ben Affleck Diet
Many poor people can probably buy food cheaper than he can, so perhaps he's aiming for an especially low budget. In any case, he may have trouble getting all the nutrients he needs.
So I created a diet for him with Wagmu. I found a diet that costs about $1.39. This cost is only a guesstimate, because it depends on where the supplies are bought, and whether they are bought in bulk, taxes, etc. Here's the diet:
166.96 grams, Soy flour, full-fat, raw.
18.71 grams, Apple cider-flavored drink, powder, added vitamin C and sugar.
31.04 grams, Roe, herring.
4 grams, Fish oil, cod liver.
6.6 grams, Cereals ready-to-eat, Ralston Enriched Bran flakes.
13.34 grams, Leavening agents, baking powder, low-sodium.
42.76 grams, Mung beans, mature seeds, raw.
2.98 grams, Salt, table.
43.66 grams, Soy flour, defatted, crude protein basis (N x 6.25).
23.6 grams, #13256 Canola, soybean and sunflower oil.
Not too thrilling! But the nutrient profile looks okay - 100% of everything:
Caveats on this diet:
(1) It's designed for only 1,400 calories. I'm dieting at the moment, and that's what Wagmu is giving me. I bet many poor people often get less than that. But given Mr. Affleck's build and active lifestyle, he will feel hungry with this diet.
(2) I didn't put in all the amino acids. Still one of those things I have to get around to doing, to upgrade Wagmu.
(3) Normal legal disclaimer, see your doctor first, this is only for entertainment purposes, use at your own risk, your mileage may vary, etc.
But is this fair to the poor people? They don't have access to state-of-the-art decision support for diet. They'll be eating whatever they can get, which is unlikely to be nearly as nutritious as the food plan above. So maybe Mr. Affleck should be left to fend for himself, rather than use this carefully designed plan. On the other hand, maybe the above diet really would convey what poor people have to eat, given its lack of palatability.
Any thoughts out there?
07 February 2013
One little thing wrong with the Fruitarian diet
US News has an article about Ashton Kutcher's month-long fruitarian diet. Apparently, the actor was preparing for the title role in the movie Jobs, as Steve Jobs himself was a fruitarian. Tragically, Mr. Jobs died of pancreatic cancer. The US News article says that Mr. Kutcher "was hospitalized after eating only fruit for one month". From the article:
"I ended up in the hospital two days before we started shooting the movie," Kutcher told reporters at the Sundance Film Festival. "I was doubled over in pain, and my pancreas levels were completely out of whack, which was terrifying, considering everything." Jobs died in October 2011, after a long battle with pancreatic cancer. His fascination with fruitarianism helped inspire his company's name.Now what could be wrong with a fruitarian diet? The US News article describes the diet like this:
Though some fruitarians are more flexible than others, the diet typically revolves around the seven basic fruit groups. These include: acid fruits (citrus, pineapples, cranberries); subacid fruits (sweet cherries, raspberries, figs); sweet fruits (bananas, melons, and grapes); nuts (hazelnuts, pistachios, cashews); seeds (sunflower, squash, pumpkin); oily fruits (avocados, coconuts, olives); and dried fruits (dates, prunes, raisins).I typed all those foods into Wagmu, and used the powerful Suggest feature to optimize the diet, to get the best possible fruitarian diet. At my wife's suggestion, I also added tomatoes. And I cheated a bit further with adding parsley. Below is the optimized diet. I left in foods with zero quantity - the optimization rejected those foods.
0 grams Nuts, coconut meat, raw
8.71 grams Nuts, walnuts, english
17.71 grams Seeds, sunflower seed kernels, dried
0 grams Currants, european black, raw
0 small (2-3/4" dia) Apples, raw, with skin
0 large (8" to 8-7/8" long) Bananas, raw
0 large (3-1/16" dia) Orange, raw
0 grams Pineapple, raw, all varieties
0 grams Dates, deglet noor
0 grams Dates, medjool
0 prune, pitted Plums, dried (prunes), uncooked
0 grams Cranberries, raw
0 grams Figs, raw
0 grams Nuts, hazelnuts or filberts
0 grams Nuts, pistachio nuts, raw
0 grams Nuts, cashew nuts, raw
0 grams Avocados, raw, California
0 grams Olives, ripe, canned (jumbo-super colossal)
0 fruit (2-1/8" dia) Plums, raw
0 grams Raisins, seedless
0 grams Seeds, pumpkin and squash seed kernels, roasted, without salt
0 grams Nuts, pistachio nuts, raw
0 grams Seeds, pumpkin and squash seed kernels, dried
0 grams Cranberries, raw
0 grams Honeydew melon, raw
113.41 grams Melons, cantaloupe, raw
0 grams Melons, casaba, raw
0 grams Watermelon, raw
1500 grams Tomatoes, red, ripe, raw, year round average
80.12 grams Spices, parsley, dried
4.75 grams Salt, table
34.72 grams Seeds, sunflower seed kernels, dry roasted, without salt
0.31 grams Nuts, brazilnuts, dried, unblanched
Good thing we added the tomatoes! Wagmu Suggest increased them to the maximum of 1500 grams. I'm not saying this is palatable. Hey, I could never be a fruitarian - no chocolate, wine or coffee! Further more, this diet isn't really all that "fruitarian". In any case, let's have a look at the nutrient profile:
Bad news! The optimal fruitarian diet is severely deficient in vitamin B-12 and vitamin D. As for vitamin D, if you're a billionaire living in sunny California, you could get all your vitamin D from the sunshine. Of course, if you're broke in Minneapolis, you'll need to sort this out some other way.
But even the billionaire won't get enough vitamin B-12. And believe me, you want to get your vitamin B-12. How can you get vitamin B-12? Take just about any one of these suggestions from the Wagmu Suggest dropdown box:
Fish oil, cod liver
Cereals ready-to-eat, GENERAL MILLS, Multi-Grain Cheerios
Beef, variety meats and by-products, kidneys, cooked, simmered
Cereals ready-to-eat, KELLOGG, KELLOGG'S ALL-BRAN WITH EXTRA FIBER
Yeast extract spread
Sardines, skinless, boneless, packed in water
#13578 Chicken liver pate
Leavening agents, baking powder, double-acting, straight phosphate
Fish, sardine, Atlantic, canned in oil, drained solids with bone
Roe, herring
Sardines with mustard sauce (mixture)
Fish, salmon, pink, canned, drained solids with bone
Leavening agents, baking powder, low-sodium
#9814 Fish moochim (Korean style), dried fish with soy sauce
Cereals ready-to-eat, KELLOGG, KELLOGG'S RAISIN BRAN
Beef, ground, 95% lean meat / 5% fat, crumbles, cooked, pan-browned
Mushrooms, portabella, exposed to ultraviolet light, grilled
Beef, ground, 90% lean meat / 10% fat, crumbles, cooked, pan-browned
#10561 Egg, yolk only, cooked
Fish, salmon, Atlantic, farmed, raw
Cheese, parmesan, grated
Fish, salmon, Atlantic, farmed, cooked, dry heat
#9162 Ground beef, meatballs, meat only, cooked, NS as to percent lean (formerly NS as to regular, lean, or extra lean)
Cheese, Mozzarella, part skim
#9150 Beef, roast, roasted, lean only eaten
Egg, whole, cooked, fried
Beef, cured, pastrami
Egg, whole, cooked, poached
#9231 Ham, fresh, cooked, lean only eaten
Beef, grass-fed, ground, raw
#9819 Marinated fish (Ceviche)
Fish, anchovy, european, canned in oil, drained solids
Crustaceans, shrimp, mixed species, cooked, moist heat
Chorizo, pork and beef
#10555 Egg, whole, fried without fat
Cheese, gouda
Cheese, provolone
#9191 Pork chop, fried, lean and fat eaten
#10554 Egg, whole, fried
Fish, cod, Atlantic, cooked, dry heat
Beef, rib eye, small end (ribs 10-12), separable lean and fat, trimmed to 0" fat, all grades, cooked, broiled
Turkey, all classes, dark meat, cooked, roasted
Cheese, mozzarella, part skim milk
#7556 Eggs on toast, parsley & Vegemite
Fish, ocean perch, Atlantic, cooked, dry heat
Cheese, blue
#9765 Lamb curry
Fast foods, hamburger, large, single patty, with condiments
#9558 Cod, baked or broiled
Beef sausage, fresh, cooked
Mollusks, clam, mixed species, canned, drained solids
Mollusks, clam, mixed species, cooked, moist heat
Veal, variety meats and by-products, liver, cooked, braised
Lamb, variety meats and by-products, liver, raw
Lamb, variety meats and by-products, liver, cooked, pan-fried
Beef, variety meats and by-products, liver, cooked, pan-fried
#9503 Beef liver, fried
Veal, variety meats and by-products, liver, cooked, pan-fried
Lamb, variety meats and by-products, kidneys, cooked, braised
Lamb, variety meats and by-products, liver, cooked, braised
Beef, variety meats and by-products, liver, cooked, braised
#9502 Beef liver, braised
Mollusks, oyster, eastern, wild, cooked, moist heat
#9664 Octopus, dried
Moose, liver, braised (Alaska Native)
Veal, variety meats and by-products, liver, raw
Beef, variety meats and by-products, liver, raw
Turkey, liver, all classes, cooked, simmered
#9704 Oysters, smoked
Cereals ready-to-eat, GENERAL MILLS, Whole Grain TOTAL
Duck, domesticated, liver, raw
Cereals ready-to-eat, GENERAL MILLS, TOTAL Corn Flakes
Goose, liver, raw
Fish, whitefish, eggs (Alaska Native)
Turkey, liver, all classes, raw
Cereals ready-to-eat, KELLOGG, KELLOGG'S ALL-BRAN COMPLETE Wheat Flakes
Clams, canned
Lamb, variety meats and by-products, kidneys, raw
#9681 Clams, steamed or boiled
Cereals ready-to-eat, KELLOGG, KELLOGG'S Complete Oat Bran Flakes
#9678 Clams, baked or broiled
#9682 Clams, smoked, in oil
Cereals ready-to-eat, KELLOGG, KELLOGG'S PRODUCT 19
#10227 Liver, beef or calves, and onions
Mollusks, clam, mixed species, raw
#9950 Liver dumpling
#9921 Clam cake or patty
#9701 Oysters, steamed
Mollusks, oyster, eastern, wild, cooked, dry heat
#9679 Clams, floured or breaded, fried
#9677 Clams, cooked, NS as to cooking method
#9699 Oysters, cooked, NS as to cooking method
Mollusks, clam, mixed species, cooked, breaded and fried
Mollusks, oyster, eastern, wild, raw
Mollusks, oyster, eastern, canned
Veal, variety meats and by-products, kidneys, cooked, braised
Mollusks, octopus, common, cooked, moist heat
Turkey, all classes, giblets, cooked, simmered, some giblet fat
#9663 Octopus, steamed
#9665 Octopus, dried, boiled
Almost any of these would help! Our billionaire wouldn't have to eat them all. Except for the brand-name cereals (all fortified) and one entry of mushrooms, these are all animal products. Surely we could pick something on here that we could manage to eat! There's a lot of choice. If we take one of the very last, the "Octopus, steamed", all we need is about 100 grams (the size of the hamburger patty in the small McDonald's hamburger), and you've completely sorted out your vitamin B-12 (omitting the foods with zero quantity this time):
9.21 grams Nuts, walnuts, english
64.4 grams Melons, cantaloupe, raw
1500 grams Tomatoes, red, ripe, raw, year round average
79.4 grams Spices, parsley, dried
1.8 grams Salt, table
26.05 grams Seeds, sunflower seed kernels, dry roasted, without salt
105.08 grams #9663 Octopus, steamed
Without octopus | With octopus |
28 August 2012
Exercise: joy, not punishment
I used to hate running in particular. But very recently, only after reading "How to Run", and actually changing how I do run, I began to enjoy it much more. So getting our form right may be part of the battle.
Maybe we should quit using the word "exercise" to mean voluntary physical exertion. "Sport" is a much more positive word, but suggests competition. Anyone have any suggestions?
Image from the NY Times
19 April 2012
The lady who died from Coke?
Natasha Marie Harris, 30, died suddenly on February 25, 2010. Her partner, Christopher Hodgkinson, had earlier claimed it was a result of drinking too much Coca-Cola...She had been drinking a lot of Coca-Cola for several years and Hodgkinson estimated between four-and-a-half and eight litres a day in the past seven or eight years.My sincere sympathies, Mr. Hodgkinson. I wonder if she died of malnutrition? Here is what 8 liters of Coke looks like nutritionally (based on a low 4864 kJ diet and 100g required Carbohydrate, for my personal settings from Wagmu).
09 April 2012
Wagmu Suggest is fixed!
THANKS, DAVE!
22 April 2011
Dieting: "Don't tell anyone"?
Her doctor gave her these four tips:
1. Eat 8 ounces of food every 3 hours.
2. No sugary drinks.
3. Do not skip meals.
4. Do not tell anyone what you're doing.
The first three make sense, from what I've read of the scientific literature. But the last? How does not telling anyone help me stay on a diet? Maybe this turns dieting into a personal vow? It seems to contradict many reports that say having a buddy system and being accountable to someone else is effective. For myself, I've found it much easier to stay on task when I share the task with someone else.
I've designed Wagmu to be private information. You can't easily share what you're doing with other people, and neither can other people see what you're doing. So it fits with not telling anyone, the personal vow approach. But I'm not sure that's the right thing. Comments welcome.
03 April 2011
Google's perfect translation
The user wrote the words to the song as:
Para bailar la bamba, Para bailar la bamba, Se necesita una poca de gracia. Una poca de gracia pa mi pa ti. Arriba y arriba Y arriba y arriba, por ti seré, Por ti? seré Por ti seré. Yo no soy marinero. Yo no soy marinero, soy capitan. Soy capitan. Soy capitan. Bamba bamba...
Just for fun, I put his text into Google Translate, and got back this, which I think is absolutely perfect:
Want to dance, To dance the Bamba, You need a little grace. A little grace pa mi pa ti. Up and up and up and up, for you will be, For you I will For you I will. I am not a sailor. I am not a sailor, I'm captain. I'm captain. I'm captain. Bamba bamba ...